Evaluation of Cryptocurrency Price Prediction Using LSTM and CNNs Models

Ng Wen - Multimedia University, Jalan Ayer Keroh Lama, 75450 Melaka, Malaysia
Lew Ling - Multimedia University, Jalan Ayer Keroh Lama, 75450 Melaka, Malaysia


Citation Format:



DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.30630/joiv.7.3-2.2344

Abstract


Cryptocurrencies created by Nakamoto in 2009 have gained significant interest due to their potential for high returns. However, the cryptocurrency market's unpredictability makes it challenging to forecast prices accurately. To tackle this issue, a deep learning model has been developed that utilizes Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to predict cryptocurrency prices. LSTMs, a type of recurrent neural network, are well-suited for analyzing time series data and have been successful in various prediction applications. Additionally, CNNs, primarily used for image analysis tasks, can be employed to extract relevant patterns and characteristics from input data in Bitcoin price prediction applications. This study contributes to the existing related works on cryptocurrency price prediction by exploring various predictive models and techniques, which involve a machine learning model, deep learning model, time series analysis, and as well as a hybrid model that combines deep learning methods to predict cryptocurrency prices as well as enhance the accuracy and reliability of the price predictions. To ensure accurate predictions in this study, a trustworthy dataset from investing.com was sought. The dataset, sourced from investing.com, consists of 1826 time series data samples. The dataset covers the time frame from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2022, providing data for a period of 5 years. Subsequently, pre-processing was conducted on the dataset to guarantee the quality of the input. As a result of absent values and concerns regarding the dataset's obsolescence, an alternative dataset was sourced to avoid these issues. The performance of the LSTM and CNN models was evaluated using root mean squared error (RMSE), mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and R-squared (R2). It was observed that they outperformed each other to a certain degree in short-term forecasts compared to long-term predictions, where the R2 values for LSTM range from 0.973 to 0.986, while for CNNs, they range from 0.972 to 0.988 for 1 day, 3 days and 7 days windows length. Nevertheless, the LSTM model demonstrated the most favorable performance with the lowest error rate. The RMSE values for the LSTM model ranged from 1203.97 to 1645.36, whereas the RMSE values for the CNNs model ranged from 1107.77 to 1670.93. As a result, the LSTM model exhibited a lower error rate in RMSE and achieved the highest accuracy in R2 compared to the CNNs model. Considering these comparative outcomes, the LSTM model can be deemed as the most suitable model for this specific case

Keywords


cryptocurrency; Bitcoin; LSTM; CNNs; prediction; price.

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